Part Two: The True Cause of the War in Ukraine

China: The Dark Horse in the Race for Global Dominance

Meanwhile, under the USA’s nose, a new, previously underestimated economic, military, and political power has emerged — China. Paradoxically, China’s development success is largely an unintended by-product of… its cooperation with the USA. For years, Americans transferred their factories to China, treating it as one large assembly line. This inadvertently contributed to China’s tremendous growth.

However, at some point, China ceased to be merely an assembly line where the USA outsourced its simplest production processes. It started becoming an innovative economy, creating and exporting cutting-edge technologies worldwide, with giants like Huawei at the forefront. Thus, on its own “back,” America “bred” a power that now begins to pose a threat — both economically and militarily, especially in the context of the conflict over Taiwan.

Simultaneously, Russia is also rebuilding itself, both economically and militarily. The imperialism, which Putin did not particularly hide, begins to materialise. The first stage of Russian expansion was the invasion of Georgia. This move was met with a remarkably lenient response from Western leaders, including those in Europe. The next step was the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which shocked the world at the time. But it didn’t stop there…

The Rebuilding of China and Russia: Implications for the War in Ukraine

As both Russia and China grew stronger and faster, they decided to challenge the United States. Although Ukraine was not a direct member of NATO, it was undoubtedly within the American sphere of influence. As we know, Russia aimed to fully subjugate Ukraine, allowing itself to exert political, economic, and military influence over the West. The first step towards this goal was the seizure of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. Since then, Russia had been eyeing the rest of Ukraine but held back from a full-scale invasion — until now.

America’s Weakening: The Reason Behind the War in Ukraine and the Potential Conflict Over Taiwan

In recent years, America has begun to weaken militarily, politically, and economically. Previously acting as the “global sheriff”, the USA realised it could not engage in multiple conflicts simultaneously, especially with the looming threat of a massive war with China over Taiwan. It has to be remembered that China still views Taiwan as its rebellious province, while the rest of the democratic world sees it as an autonomous state.

Why is Taiwan So Crucial to the USA?

The reason is that Taiwan is the largest, in fact the only, supplier of so-called semiconductors — a component essential to all modern technology. Whoever controls semiconductor supplies controls the global economy. Therefore, the USA must defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. If they fail, they will collapse as a global economic power. Putin understands this and knows that, in a crisis, the Americans will have to divert their forces to the Pacific first, not to Europe.

US Policy: The Cause of the War in Ukraine

The USA had to regroup its forces to be ready to defend Taiwan if necessary. However, under President Biden, US foreign policy has been fraught with failures in the international arena. First, there was the withdrawal (or rather, the retreat) of American troops from Afghanistan. Then came Biden’s unfortunate remarks before the war, suggesting that “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do”. These actions signalled weakness from the USA, which had previously played the role of the global sheriff, capable of leading or participating in multiple conflicts around the world simultaneously.

The Times Have Changed

Russia interpreted these moves as a clear sign of weakness. The best evidence of this was the build-up of troops on the Ukrainian border and the so-called “Lavrov ultimatum” sent to the Americans in December 2021, less than three months before the war. This ultimatum stated clearly: either withdraw your forces behind the Oder line (i.e. withdraw NATO forces from Poland and other countries), or there will be war. NATO, led by the United States, did not succumb to the blackmail, and Putin, aiming to fulfil his imperialist foreign policy, made good on his threat.

February 2022 Shattered the Decades-Long International Order

By invading Ukraine, Putin effectively shattered the global order established after the Second World War. The whole world once again faced global chaos, and until new rules of engagement between the world’s major powers emerge, the threat of war will remain real.

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